Thursday, 19 July 2012

Football Betting Tutorial

I'm really enjoying The Football Analyst blog at the moment. Graeme's ongoing analysis makes for fascinating reading. The post I read last night about the many different ways to utilise the top notch System 7-22 was a real eye opener. If you have any interest in football betting, even if you're not a member of this particular service, you really do need to go and read it if you haven't done so already. In a beautifully succinct way, it sums up the reasons why as a gambler you should be measuring your returns in terms of ROC and to avoid getting hung up simply on the ROI figures. Graeme demolishes the myth that as a gambler, you should be constantly trying to maximise your levels of roi in order to make high level profits, and to hell with anything else (not that I'm saying that's what we do, but I must admit, it is easy to fall into this way of thinking). Add to that an insight into the power of Asian Handicap betting as a means to alleviating risk levels and increasing ROC (and consequently the potential to maximise bottom line cash profits), and you have a tutorial in footie betting that is impossible to do anything other than gain an awful lot from.

I record my own results in terms of roi, as you know. This will change at the appropriate time, which at the moment I'm thinking will be when the UK and main European leagues start up again in August. At that point I will record my results for each sports service in terms of both ROI and ROC, which I think will make interesting reading as the season progresses.


Just as an aside, have you seen the lineup for the King George on Saturday? Mouthwatering. I've got to say, I'm more of a jumps man myself - Cheltenham over Royal Ascot any day for me, but this race has really grabbed my imagination. Should be a cracker.


Wednesday's Betting

Another gently profitable day, much like the day before.

I mentioned the struggles of On The Nose the other day, but as I mentioned, this has not been alone amongst racing services in terms of making losses. Northern Monkey suffered a June to forget, and July had started in much the same way. Amazing how quickly things can change though. Two winners from two on Tuesday, and one from one yesterday, at rather tasty odds too (Sheila's Buddy - Sandown - 20/1)! That's two 20/1 winners in the space of five days. Heh.

July took a further turn for the worse for Winning Racing Tips though, as an each way single and double both bit the dust.


Summer Of Football's recent form figures read: Played 24, Won 16, Drawn 2, Lost 6. Not at all bad, eh? And two from two yesterday!

Unfortunately the football overall showed a small loss, as Service X could find only a split stake winner from four bets. Better was to come in the early morning games but those will be reported tomorrow.


Right then. I'm off to bed with the Weekender to read all about Ascot on Saturday. It's a glamorous life I lead, don't you think?

5 comments:

  1. Like the content of your article!

    I have been doing some research on calculating fair odds by expected goals, poisson distribution and placing value bets lately and would like to recommend the following articles (for beginners like myself):

    1. http://footytradingposts.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/calculating-goal-expectancy.html
    2. http://footytradingposts.blogspot.co.uk/2012/01/poisson-for-dummies.html
    3. http://www.soccerwidow.com/betting-maths/tutorial/calculation-of-odds-probability-and-deviation/

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    1. Sorry! For some reason the comment went into Spam and I've only just seen it!

      Certainly not spam though. Good reading! :)

      Delete
  2. Hi Rowan,

    I read the analysis of Graeme as well, very interesting reading I agree.
    I must admit that I always focus on the ROI and the ROI is of course the most important factor, but the ROC is also a very good measure of how a system performs but it is a little bit underestimated...

    To make sure if I understand it all correct I made an example: We play two systems, system A and system B:
    System A has 1.000 bets a year, bank 200 points, stake is €10
    System B has 1.000 bets a year, bank 100 points, stake is €20

    System A has a larger bank than System B because of higher average odds and a higher drawdown in the past (twice as high) than System B.

    Over the whole year System A achieves a ROI of 12.00 %, 120 points won, the ROC is 60 %, €1200 won.
    System B achieves a ROI of 8.00 %, 80 points won, the ROC is 80 %, €1600 won.

    System A has a higher ROI than system B, but a lower ROC.
    So despite the fact the System A has a higher ROI than System B, you make more money with system B!

    I hope these calculation are all correct and makes sense.

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    Replies
    1. Yes, you're right in that ROI and ROC are important measures of performance, which is why I will start to note both on the blog.

      Nice example. Spot on as far as I'm concerned.

      Delete
  3. Have fun sports betting! Will be looking forward to your ROI and ROC records in the future.

    ReplyDelete