Thursday, 21 July 2011

Bumbling fool!

Portfolio performance for 2011 so far has been poor. I have found myself wondering recently how much of this has been down to underperforming services, and how much has been the inevitable result of an underperforming me. Thinking back over the last six months, I can see some absolutely glaring mistakes that I've made that ultimately have adversely effected bottom line performance. Here are three...

1. Joining Shaolin Betting.

2. Stopping following the Sports Investor tips, then going back to backing them again, before stopping again!

3. Constantly changing staking and system followed with The Football Analyst.

There are others, I'm sure. But these are the ones that spring to mind.

Now, there have been other factors that have dragged down performance that can't be attributed to my general incompetence. PJA NH had an horrific first quarter to the year, Football Elite had a dreadful January and a not much better March, and the normally excellent 4PA's standard of performance has dropped significantly from it's 2010 heights. But even if allowing for this, I reckon my mistakes have ultimately been the difference between languishing in negative territory or edging into the land of milk and honey that is profit.

Furthermore, reflecting on the period July to December 2010 - a period in which my betting recorded a profit of over £6,000 at an roi of 10.47% - I recognise that I made other mistakes. Being subscribed to what were patently the wrong services, changing the staking, bottling it when enduring a bad run. You name it, I did it. If I were a racehorse, my betting competence would be the equivalent of running (and being thrashed) in sellers.

Which is all rather encouraging. I can do something about me. Self-flagellation is perhaps going a tad too far (although would probably meet the approval of my staunchly Catholic mother-in-law), but the experience gained and the lessons learnt should stand me in good stead. I can say openly, and with no concern about St.Peter denying me access to the kingdom of heaven for being a "lying git" (his words, not mine) that July's depressing balance sheet is absolutely no fault of mine. I have merely followed orders. And following orders is definitely the way to go until June 2012.

Today's Betting

'Consolidation', would be the right word to use I guess, after yesterday's profit. A small profit today, primarily thanks to a winner found amongst the four The Market Examiner selections (Plattsburgh - Doncaster - 5/1). On The Nose's one each way tip finished third (Shamacam - Sandown - 5/1). The only other service to play was Northern Monkey who drew a blank from their two small bets, although the first was backed down from 14/1 to 5/1 before finishing a not too far away second.

Northern Monkey: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
On The Nose: Staked 1.5pts, +0.188pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 4pts, +2pts.

Thursday 21st July: Staked £88, +£17.76.
Running total: -£755.24 (roi -17.62%).


  1. Hi Rowan.

    I know you like beating yourself up on here mate but no matter what staking plan you were going to use after Christmas with my bets last season, you were going to lose. I know you won’t take great comfort from that but it’s the truth I’m afraid. Unless you had the foresight to start covering the draw (why would you when the first half of the season was so good?), you had to lose from January mate.

    I know you switched systems from 8 to 8-22 and yeah, 8-22 was the worst system from Jan-11 till the season end but with hindsight, you’d do the same again I suspect. The ROI was 4 times higher on 8-22 than system 8 over the first half of the season and we all know backing teams that appeared on both algorithms is the best way to follow these bets.

    I’ve made the decision to not follow any of the single bet systems myself next season 6,7,8,21,22 and therefore, this again vindicates the decision you made last season. You had the right strategy but you were unlucky with the timing. You can’t beat yourself up for this mate.

    I nearly had a tear in my eye when I wrote on my blog today I was dropping system 8 next season. I was so excited when I first developed that and couldn’t believe I’d ever find a better system for football betting. I know you had a soft spot for it also. Amazingly, system 8 didn’t lose any points profits in the second half of last season when every other system was losing lots of pts. It just stayed stable through the bad times but with a reducing ROI. What a system! lol

    Good luck for next season. Fingers crossed the systems do what they did in the first half of last season. :)


  2. Hi Graeme,

    It wasn't just the changing of systems that did for me (as you suggest, moving to 8-22 was the right thing to do at the time). It was more the combination of that and changing staking levels too. That bit me twice - by essentially minimising my actual monetary returns over the great first half of the season, and then maximising my losses over the second half. Lesson learnt there.

    I read your blog last night before closing down, and I know what you mean by System 8. I see system 8 as being my Cesc Fabregas system (and I know that you know that this isn't the first time I've mentioned yourself in the same breath as my little Spanish genius - you really are truly honoured! :) ). Really fond of it but perhaps time to move on, and will miss it dreadfully when it's gone.

    Fingers/eyes/bollocks and anything else I can think of crossed for the new season. Would be lovely to get off to a solid start, wouldn't it?

    Cheers, mate.


  3. Ah, I forgot about the increase in staking Rowan. As you know, I did the same thing at around the same sort of time, so you weren't alone in this respect either.

    The funny thing is, we were just doing the rational thing when following new systems. Stake lowly for a few months, see how it goes and then increase stakes if you think it's something worth following. Unfortunately, that was the worst staking method ever for these systems last season as it turned out.

    Anyway, like you, I'm really hoping the systems start well this season. I know it's the final results at the end of the season that count but it is so much easier on the mental side of things if you start well and get some profits in the bank to play with.

    Only 6 weeks to go. ;)