Monday, 11 July 2011

Decoy runs.

Everybody who seems to know what they are talking about preaches the necessity to gamblers of adopting the long term approach if ultimately they are to be successful. We learn of the detrimental effect to our short term performance that can be caused by variance. Seasoned gambling pros tell of the need to give a system/tipping service/methodology sufficient time to prove itself before jumping in with both feet and going large with stakes. Most serious reviewers also warn against drawing premature conclusions about a tipping service over too short a period of time, either when things are going badly or amazing profits being made. A sample of results, it is said, must be of a certain size before they are at all meaningful statistically.

It's all well and good, this need for a long-term "mindset". But it's not so easy to train the brain to concentrate on the long-term and dismiss the need for some short term gratification. It's all very well Sting being into all this tantric whatnot. I bet there are times when he simply fancies a quickie. And so it is with betting. I don't know about you, but I am constantly having to draw my neck in and keep reminding myself of the importance of not getting too absorbed in the here and now. When running a sizeable portfolio of tipping services, the skirmishes with the bookmakers occur each and every day. There is no let up. No respite. And it is this grind - this incessant, remorseless need to get bets on day after day after day - that makes maintaining a mentality focused on the long-term so very difficult. It is only human nature, is it not, to want to see some sort of reward for all the effort that is going in? It's not jam tomorrow that I want. It's milk and honey today.

Let's look at ProBandit in this context. Now I know (and I mean know), that here is a service that can rack up good profits over a sustained period of time. I saw it with my own eyes and my betting returns were considerably boosted by my following this service over the second half of last year. Since then though, things have become much tougher for PB. The calendar year to date has seen the balance sheet showing a deficit of around half a point. Half a point! That's not so much standing still as lying in a bed in a Critical Care Unit in a comatose state for six and a bit months. All that bet placement. All that result recording. For what? What has been the point of it all?

Well I have a view on this. I think it is very easy to disregard the role that a service that hasn't lost any meaningful amount of points over a decent period of time plays in the wider context. If we accept that it simply isn't possible for every service to be racking up great profits month after month, then we must look at the alternatives. How would we feel if every service we followed was either flying or slumping? I know how I'd feel. I'd be an emotional wreck. A quivering jelly. So I don't look at ProBandit as being pointless. I see it as being solid. A rock. But I have the advantage of knowing that this rock has the potential to one day "find" itself again and start to contribute strong profits once more. At this moment in time, I liken ProBandit to the forward who hasn't scored for a while but keeps making the decoy runs that pull opposition defenders out of position, and by doing so, allow his teammates to score. The scorer gets the plaudits from the fans and the media, but the guy who made the goal possible receives the acknowledgement of the manager, the chap who really knows the player's worth to the team.

So there we have it. ProBandit is currently the Emile Heskey of the portfolio. But there will come a time when it will be the Thierry Henry again. Of that, I am sure.

Today's Betting

Very quiet day today, but a couple of winners and a profit.

Northern Monkey: Continued their fine form today. One selection, one winner (Timeless Elegance - Ayr - 4/1). It's been a great start to the month for NMP and I'm really hoping they push on and produce that really big month that they contribute from time to time.

The Market Examiner: Another service finding winners now and one more today (Cruise Tothelimit - Windsor - 11/2) from their two selections.

Not such success from On The Nose or Winning Racing Tips which each gave one tip which didn't make the frame.

Northern Monkey: Staked 0.75pts, +3pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 2pts, +4.5pts.
On The Nose: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 0.4pts, -0.4pts.

Monday 12th July: Staked £88, +£70.
Running total: -£378.97 (roi -16.79%).


  1. Thierry Henri, hmm hes finished aint he? past his best, a busted flush, gone to pasture.

    And Pro Bandit, Well...... haha

    well another shit month this is turning into mate, last months profits given back due to a run of losers that i didnt think that the Lord Master "Variance" could even have thrown up, but throw it up he did. The C**t.

    Patience is wearing very VERY thin

  2. Oi, the Good Lord ain't finished. And never will be in eyes! (LOL!).

    Not been a great month so far has it? I got a feeling we're about to reach tipping point over the next week - either July could be a nightmare, or a recovery to break even.

    Hope things look up, mate, for both of us!

  3. Your patience in Pro-Bandit is admirable. I bailed out a few months ago. Letting aside the flatline performance (which has I think only got worse since I left) the service is one of the more expensive ones albeit not in the Equine Investments League out there and for what you’re paying the return is very poor. A lot of these choices come down to personal preference but I’d personally prefer to use the Pro-Bandit subs and the funds tied up in betting their picks on something a bit more speculative – I’ve taken on two services with ½ Probandit stakes. I’m not up any significant sum since doing this but I’m testing two new services and more importantly for my own psychological make up have shook of that horrible feeling of inertia that I associate with the service over the last while. I don’t mind highs and lows. I can cope with either as I know my staking is generally good, I test everything with reduced staking for a considerable period and I read up before making any changes to service.

    Good luck with the service. I’ve a feeling however you’ll still be running on the spot in a few weeks time.

    Banaz (SBC)

  4. Hi Banaz,

    Good to see you over here. Follow your posts on the SBC forum with interest.

    I wouldn't knock your strategy at all; in fact seems very sensible taking on two services to replace ProBandit because as you know, by doing so your risk is reduced again through diversification. It's like you say, most of the choices come down to personal preference.

    It's a very good point about cost. PB isn't the cheapest, and if things don't move forward then there is obviously a point in time where you have to say enough is enough. Of course if we were able to get these judgment calls right 100% of the time, we'd all be laughing. Mind you, there'd be precious little to write about. :)

    All the best,