Saturday, 9 July 2011

Rapped knuckles but relief all the same.

Now I know that you know that I rambled last night. "Why use one word when ten will do?", was the question that immediately sprang to mind when I read through my own post. I knew that there'd be someone out there who could say the same thing, only more succinctly, and in a way that made much more sense. Curly it was, who stepped up to the plate, and became that someone...

"I think a simple way to look at it is through flipping a coin (I appreciate that your tipsters may select the same selection and/or different selections in the same race and so it's not a direct comparison).

If you flip a coin once the two possible outcomes are either heads or tails - so if you bet £50 @ evens on heads the expected value or number of heads is 0.5 and therefore you have an equal chance to double your money or lose all of it. If you decide to flip this coin 4 times you now only have a 1/16 chance of doubling or losing all your money but you also have a range of options inbetween - a 1/4 chance to win £50, a 1/4 chance to lose £50 and a 3/8 chance of breaking even.

Assuming all your services have the same Expected Value (essentially the mean of their results) then by including more services you are in theory reducing your risk to randomness or, the variance in the results. Of course if your services expected value is actually negative then by reducing the variance you're increasing the likelihood you'll lose although the rate at which you lose will likely decrease."

The significance of that last sentence mustn't be missed. Ultimately, all is flawed if the services that make up the portfolio are flawed, and money will be lost over the long term.

Anyway, thankyou Curly. For more logical writing and dare I suggest, not a ramble in sight, please read Curly's blog. I've stuck a link up top right.

Today's Betting

Reading the Racing Post this morning, I thought that if I could escape with a of loss under £100 today, I'd be doing ok. Nightmare, big-field handicaps. Open and competitive group and listed races. On the face of it, the cards looked collectively like a punter's worst nightmare. So to make a profit, even if only a smidgeon, I see as a right good result. Thing is though, to end in positive territory, I needed to rely on a huge piece of luck. I only gained the opportunity to enjoy that piece of luck by being completely incompetent. And that pees me right off. I got away with it today. I won't always.

4PA: The piece of luck I'm referring to was that I sloppily misread the 4PA message this morning, putting 1.5pts on Pekan Star win only. The actual bet was 1.5pts each way. As the horse finished way out of the frame, my mistake saved me £60, and thus ultimately I finished the day with a profit and not a loss.

Now that's all well and good, but I hate making mistakes like that. It doesn't happen very often, and I pride myself on paying attention to detail. The thing is you see, if this sort of mistake was to become a habit, then it would be only a matter of time until a big win is missed. The sort of win that can greatly effect the final year's figures for a service, never mind the day's figures. Imagine putting only half of the correct stake on a 33/1 winner, for example.

So, rapped knuckles for me.

Poor old 4PA is having a rough time of it at the moment. Their other two selections also ran poorly and nothing seems to be going their way at present. Matter of time of course, before it all turns around again. Form is temporary and all that.

Northern Monkey: In contrast, what a very pleasant couple of days it's been for Wayne at Northern Monkey. Yesterday's triumph with Coeus followed nicely today with a decent bet (the largest from Northern Monkey on the day) on Medicean Man (Newmarket - 6/1) , a nice winner in the last.

On The Nose: Real signs of a return to form here too as yesterday's 14/1 winner is followed by another victory found amongst today's four selections (Masamah - York - 13/2).

The Market Examiner: Difficult to improve on a one bet, one winner day that TME had today. Two winners in two days at Chester (Colour Vision - Chester - 7/1). As this morning's message said, there were all sorts of market moves going on today, so to sift through all and find just the one that went in nicely is top tipping in anyone's book.

ProBandit: Just one small and ultimately unsuccessful bet from ProBandit.

4PA: Staked 3.5pts, -3.5pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 2pts, +3.25pts.
On The Nose: Staked 4.5pts, +1.4pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 1pt, +7pts.
ProBandit: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.

Saturday 9th July: Staked £280, +£19.
Running total: -£296.97 (roi -14.72%).

Right then. I'm off to enjoy a bottle or two of Peroni and the finest of traditional English cuisine - a lamb chilli massala - in front of a film.


1 comment:

  1. chasemaster layed a 6-1 shot today that won cant understand why they give out lays it is the weak part of the service