There has been a lot of discussion over in the SBC forum about the plans of The Football Analyst for next season. Regular readers of the blog will know that I essentially had TFA as part of the portfolio last season, but what with changing stakes, changing the systems I followed at certain times, etc., etc., I didn't make anywhere near as much money as I should have. The first half of the season was fantastic and there was one weekend in particular that still brings a warm, fuzzy feeling when I think back to it. However, due to a combination of the systems suddenly becoming a way of securing a fortune on the pools, were you of a mind to, with the incredible number of draws they hit, and my inconsistent staking and strategy, from Christmas to the end of the season was a period in which I gave more back to the bookies than I really ought.
So, lessons learnt. Pick a system, stick to it, and don't alter staking. Easy.
What I, and anyone else following, needs to do is to decide upon which system(s) to follow. There isn't a shortage of stats to look at on the TFA blog which can help with the making of such decisions, but before looking at these, I think it prudent to ask oneself what sort of service is wanted. One of the beauties of these systems is that it is possible to essentially make the service a bespoke service, tailored to the individual's needs. I get the impression from some comments about TFA that there is a belief that you have to place thousands of bets following numerous systems. That isn't strictly speaking an accurate reflection of what the service can provide. You can go for very high churn/lower roi or lower churn/higher roi and anything or everything in between.
Personally, I don't want too many bets each week. With Football Investor/Strike Zone providing a large number of bets and Skeeve's selections needing prompt action to grab the prices, I'm looking for a Football Elite-esque approach - perhaps 3-5 bets each week. System 7-22 has caught my eye with this in mind...the last three seasons have seen an average of 111 bets per season (compared to c.100 for Football Elite), enjoyed a strike rate of 49.96%, produced an average of 30.1 points/season profit at an average roi of 27.2%. As far as results go, attaining just half of that level over the course of the coming season would be fine by me! Only seven of the 28 months played in over those three seasons provided a loss, and two of those covered a month where there was just one bet and another which had just two (May 2009 and August 2009). Even with these included in the calculations, profitable monthly strike rate is 75%.
Mmmm...I think this is probably the direction I'll be looking in. More analysis needed though before any final decision is made.
I couldn't help but find today rather frustrating. Three good winners, spread across three different services but with each, the winners were staked at a lower level than their other bets. The result was that this was a mildly profitable day, which is better than a mildly losing day, let's face it. But even so, it feels like today was one that got away rather.
ProBandit's first selection ran a shocker but their second got up by a short head to land the spoils (Powerful Pierre - Pontefract - 11/2). Northern Monkey really is alone this month in being in fine form, and today found another very nice winner (Duchess Dora - Pontefract - 7/1) albeit backed only to a small stake. The other service to turn a profit was On The Nose (Abdicate - Hamilton - 5.25/1 after r.4), who won rather well and never looked like getting beaten.
The Market Examiner was the other service in action today. Two losers from two.
Northern Monkey: Staked 1pt, +1pt.
The Market Examiner: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
ProBandit: Staked 1.5pts, +0.996pts.
On The Nose: Staked 2.5pts, +0.625pts.
Friday 15th July: Staked £148, +£44.38.
Running total: -£556.11 (roi -19.38%).
Now, I'm off down to Shropshire tomorrow for the weekend so no post tomorrow. Back Sunday. Have a good one, chaps and chapesses...may the force be with you.