Tuesday, 19 July 2011


Very quick one tonight as I'm in late and don't have a lot of time.

Alan asked for overall P&L figures for the year, after taking into account the cost of subs. Here are the final balances for each month of 2011 so far (it does not make for happy reading):

January: -£273.67
February: +£57.17
March: +£1,444.55
April: -£1,299.60
May: +£1,230.75
June: +£328.71

Fees cost £3k per year, so pro rata £1,500 for this period. Do the sums and it comes to a loss of £12.84.

To answer Alan's question totally accurately, then that £12.84 has to be added to July's dismal performance so far and a further £250 deducted for fees.

Moving forward, I will break down the figures in each post to the daily profit/loss, the month to date performance, and the year to date - the year running from 1st July 2011 to 30th June 2012.

(I have always considered this to be my financial year for two reasons. One, I started following a portfolio of services in a July; and two, I pay for all the football services in the summer (apart from Football Elite, which was one of the first services I ever joined).

At the end of each month, I will deduct £250 for fees from the running year to date total. That way, anyone reading can see exactly where we're up to. Obviously I haven't separated the ytd figures for the month to date figures in July, because they are exactly the same.

As we know, I have the portfolio set up as I want it. Barring extreme circumstances, it will not change until July next year, either in terms of services followed or staking. The plan is to avoid any deviation at all. If by 30th June, 2012 we are seeing a loss or a level of profit that essentially makes the hard work pointless, then I shall admit defeat and have a major rethink. I'm running the portfolio as if following instructions in a text book - let's hope it works, eh.

Today's Betting

Yet another losing day on the racing, albeit just a tiny deficit today thanks to Chasemaster, who broke their recent losing run with a nice winner tonight (Lord Ryeford - Bangor - 9/2). Of the other services, Northern Monkey had one very small bet which lost, The Market Examiner's three selections lost (although they had the horse that finished second to Lord Ryeford), and ProBandit's nightmare week/ten days continued with neither of their selections furnishing a return.

Northern Monkey: Staked 0.25pts, -0.25pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 3pts, -3pts.
ProBandit: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.25pts, +0.703pts.

I thought I might eke out a small profit today, as On The Oche had a treble at the World Matchplay. On previous days the first two had won, and we were on the 1/5 shot Gary Anderson for the final leg, who promptly lost.

It seems that if something can go wrong, just at the moment, it does.

On The Oche: Staked 1pt, -1pt.

Tuesday 19th July: Staked £202, -£106.69.
Running total: -£975.70 (roi -25.15%).


  1. 1/5 lol way 2 the poor house

  2. Yeah, would be if it was a single bet, but the cumulative odds of the three parts of the treble produced what was perceived to be value. From the rationale provided, I wouldn't argue with it, and it is the sort of bet that I know OTO have made money from.


  3. Thanks for that Rowan,

    Yes it doesnt look too bad untill you subtract fees.

    It certainly lets you see why people with a talent for beating the bookies go into selling their advice. If you are good, the fees show a much better chance of making steady money from the game.

  4. Hey mate. I really did not expect you to be in the red after 6 months. It is the sub fee's which are doing the damage.

    I realise this year has not been great for many tipsters. I started betting again in mid-February this year and it took me until to May to get out of the red. April-June have been profitable for me but July is definitely a red month again.

    Anyway, I am just wishing to ask if you have a suitable bank for each service? I think I may be correct in saying you use a 1.5x leverage, yes?

    Also, do you have a current ROI for every month and total ytd? If it is sitting in profit of 5%+ then it could be subs are too much. I know we aim for 10% ROI at SBC.

    Myself - February-June

    Stakes - 9327.93
    Profit - 923.31
    ROI - 9.90%

    I am only following 4 services (4PA, PJA Flat, Market Examiner (which you joined and ruined), and Piecost's SBC selections (just replaced it this week for PJA NH due to number of bets)) and using a 1.5x leverage which is a little risky but I wouldn't classify it as high risk.

    Fee's average at £58 per month (more than half of that is 4PA) and average bank is around £1000 per service with the leverage included.


  5. Can't argue with that Alan. I'd do it if I had a way that I could beat the bookie. Trouble is, I can't pick a winner to save my life, never mind make a regular profit. :(

  6. Hey Andy,

    How you doing?

    I've got some thoughts about what you're asking that probably need a proper post to go into properly, because although a six month period is a fair amount of time to end up being in the red over, it still needs to be put in context. The first half of my "financial" year (ie. July - December 2010) was actually fairly decent (well, not July as it happens) and over the twelve months to the end of June 2011, I am in profit after fees.

    I'll get around to posting properly on this, probably over the weekend or very early next week.

    In the meantime though, yep, I do leverage at 1.5x. It is slightly risky, but with the extra diversification via a large number of services followed, I don't think 1.5x is unreasonably risky.

    Sorry about TME, but their quality will soon win the battle over my curse, I'm sure!

    Good to hear from you,