I have a 'Quiet Now' Nina Simone CD on the go as I sup from a large glass of Rioja. The kids have been encouraged to go and read quietly in their rooms. If I had a scented candle I would have lit it. And if this infernal rain was to ever stop, I would go for a walk so that I could take a couple of gulps of reconstitutional fresh air. Yep - you've guessed it. I'm trying to chill out, to relax and allow the disappointments of the punting weekend to fade gently away, consigned to a compartment within my brain labelled, 'Bin'.
Look, we all know the importance of long-term thinking. We know that to become emotionally embroiled is detrimental to our chances of achieving our ambition to at all times adopt a 'professional' outlook on our investing. But you know what? There are times when you wouldn't be human if you weren't effected by a run of poor results. Last time I looked, I was human, and I'd be lying to myself if I denied that I hadn't been effected by this bad run.
Since midway through June, the racing side of the portfolio has badly underperformed. That is a fact. There is no getting away from it and it is pointless to pretend otherwise. From being over £1,000 up for June, to finish that month at +£300, and to now be at -£783 for July is pretty poor.
So let's take a little look at where July is going wrong. Here are the basic figures for each service, month to date (rounded to the nearest point/percentage):
Northern Monkey: +19pts, roi 115%
PJA NH: -1pts, roi -12%
On The Nose: -2pts, roi -8%
The Market Examiner: -7pts, roi -13%
Chasemaster: -1.25pts, roi -100%
ProBandit: -4pts, roi -28%
Winning Racing Tips: -3pts, roi -57%
4PA: -15.5pts, roi -86%.
What can we glean from these figures?
Observation number 1: thank bejingos for Northern Monkey!
Observation 2: in a portfolio of eight services, only one is turning a profit. That is pretty dire.
Observation 3: if we strip from the final balance the two services performing at the extremes of the scale (ie. Northern Monkey and 4PA), the remaining services, although not exactly pulling up any trees, are actually only a shade away from turning things around. Is this clutching at straws? Quite possibly, but it is also a fact. None of these services are beyond the pale for July. They are each only a good winner or two away from turning deficit into profit. And those winners would only bring the monthly strike rate into line with their long term strike rate performance figures.
Of course, those winners may well never come. In which case, August is going to be one heck of a recovery mission!
Notable racing highlights of the weekend...The Market Examiner's winner yesterday (Now My Sun - Haydock - 5/1), On The Nose's success today (Captain Carey - The Curragh - 9/1), and, err....oh.
4PA: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
PJA NH: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
On The Nose: Staked 5.75pts, +0.312pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 7pts, -1pt.
ProBandit: Staked 1.5pts, -1.5pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 2.2pts, -1.44pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 2.25pts, -2.25pts.
A nod of recognition to On The Oche. First bets back and a winner from two settled bets so far. I'll not mention the nature of the winning bet as it wouldn't be fair to the service who put the work into identifying the strategy. Suffice to say, it wasn't a simple match bet.
On The Oche: Staked 2pts, +0.562pts.
Total staked over the weekend: £722, -£226.90.
Running total: -£783.01 (roi -21.8%).
That peace and calm I mentioned I was searching for. Shattered! My daughter's bedroom door may be closed, but her music is blaring. Bloody Katy Perry! May have to dull the senses with a second bottle of Rioja...