Saturday, 2 July 2011

Old Friends.

I'm in the missus' good books. I've lost my voice.

Stupid cold.

Well, the mystery 15th service has been subscribed to today, and I have been allowed to rejoin On The Oche.

Those mistakes I was talking about last night. Well one of them was leaving On The Oche when I did. At the time, it seemed like the right move to make. Performance had been poor for a little while. The number of bets felt like they were drying up and when the SBC dropped OTO from their Hall Of Fame, it was enough for me to decide that I should stop putting my money on Rich's selections.

I kept an eye on them though. In the back of my mind, niggling away at me was the question: could a guy with such an obvious edge in darts betting really just "lose" it in the space of a few months? Now that I know more about the effect that variance can have on short term performance (or even medium term come to that), and how a small sample of bets really is never a solid basis upon which one can draw firm conclusions, I can see that my decision to drop OTO was the wrong one.

In Matt's Football Elite end of season review he produced a small table of figures (relating to the performance of OTO) that really brought home, in very stark terms, just what a wingnut I had been. I've not asked permission to reproduce this table, so I won't copy it in it's entirety, but I will provide the most important figures and hope that Matt doesn't object...

2007 - Bets 90 -- ROI 94.3%
2008 - Bets 113 -- ROI 24.7%
2009 - Bets 97 -- ROI 25.1%
2010 - Bets 96 -- ROI -13.6%
2011 - Bets 46 -- ROI 69.7%

You see what I mean.

Now, rather like with The Market Examiner, I have (re)joined at a time of what is quite possibly considerable overperfomance, and it would come as no surprise if a period of correction was imminent. But I would chalenge anyone who looked at those figures and denied that here was a service with a very clear edge in it's chosen area of expertise. And that being so, in the long term, I really should be alright.

Today's Betting

My first half of June was truly excellent and then performance really slipped to leave it being a slightly profitable but generally mediocre month. The way July has started, I'm just hoping that July will be June in reverse...a bad start and then a great second half.

There was one service that did ok today and that was ProBandit who played in just the one race, with just the one horse, and just the one horse won (Millyluvstobouggie - Leicester - 11/4). That came early in the day, and I thought I might possibly be in for a good one. How wrong could I be?

4PA went in with a few selections this morning and whilst three of them simply ran poor races, there was one tip that really should have won. I have never seen anything quite like it before. Ever. Vita Nova was the horse in the Lancashire Oaks at Haydock. I managed to get 7/4 this morning, but it was backed in on course to 10/11. As it came to win it's race - and believe me, it was going to win it's race - the jockey's saddle slipped. Nearly exiting stage left, Tom Queally somehow managed to stay on board and with about 30 yards to go, rode it in the style of John Wayne in Rio Grande, spurting forward to finish second. When luck's against you...

Continuing the theme of not getting the rub of the green, one of The Market Examiner's three selections had me pulling out what little of my hair I have left. Slowly away, Aerial Acclaim found itself right at the back of the field. Storming past most in the last couple of furlongs, it was repeatedly prevented from enjoying a clear run, and it eventually finished third.

You always notice the hard luck stories more when you're losing.

A day to forget for On The Nose as none of their four each way selections made the frame, and a small win bet from Northern Monkey was also foiled.

The last three days have really not been much cop at all.

4PA: Staked 5.5pts, -3pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 4pts, -4pts.
On The Nose: Staked 4pts, -4pts.
ProBandit: Staked 1pt, +1.198pts.

Saturday 2nd July: Staked £394, -£214.84.
Running total: -£326.84 (roi -64.59%).

Right. The traditional methods of finding relief from all symptoms of colds and flu have not worked. There's only one thing for it - kill the bastard thing with alcohol!

No comments:

Post a Comment