Wednesday, 6 July 2011


You know back in the second part of May/early part of June, I remember going on a run of about ten consecutive days where the portfolio made money. Some days it was a small amount only, on others the profits were significant. After about six days or so, I remember thinking each morning about how much I was going to make that day. I knew the run couldn't and wouldn't last, but the fact is that I expected to be recording gains at the end of the day.

Today was the seventh consecutive losing day. I am now waking up, expecting to lose money. All I wonder is how much.

This isn't meant to be doomy and gloomy though. I've been through these runs before, and they do get easier to deal with. I know it is when, not if, things will turn around. I've seen all this before and I guess it's when experience really does count. Mentally I'm fine - just bored. Bored with losing. I want to win just to break the monotony, if you know what I mean? Perhaps tomorrow.

Today's Betting

A blank today from three selections from The Market Examiner.

ProBandit played in three races and found the winner of one (Red Courtier - Kempton - 9/2) to produce a profit on the day.

A very small loss from Winning Racing Tips, whose selection finished third (Thirsty Bear - Bath - 4/1).

Finally Chasemaster suffered from non-runners in their selected race this evening. Two of the blighters meant a 17 horse race paying each way on the top four was reduced to 15 runners, each way paying first three home. You guessed it Ours was edged out for third on the run in.

Wednesday 6th July: Staked £190, -£38.40.
Running total: -£645.12 (roi -54.62%).

Drip, drip, drip...


  1. Hi TPI,

    Long time reader, first time commenter. Or something like that anyway.

    I like the fact that you had an original plan and stuck to it. I also like that along similar lines you're fully prepared to ride out variance and give all your services a fair chance to make money over 12 months. I don't run a portfolio of tipster services, in fact I've never even paid for a tip so my experience and knowledge of the area is limited. However, it stands to reason that any long term punting strategy will inevitably suffer a significant drawdown. It also can't help that the European football seasons are still weeks away from starting, as increasing the number of selections should reduce the variance.

    I was wondering a couple of things - both of which I'll understand if you don't want to get into. Firstly, how big of a drawdown does £640 represent against your combined banks? I notice that you obviously have varying banks for your services which I assume must be weighted against your projection of expected risk/reward. To that end if you were to smooth out your average expected returns where would you expect to be? I guess this links in with your expected maximum % drawdown and likely/(eventually) actual length of recovery.

    Anyway, completely understand if you'd rather not answer, I'm really only curious.

    All the best,


  2. Curly, if I could give prizes for good questions, I think you'd be long odds on to win whatever was on offer in the "Best Question" category.

    Seriously, that's a very thought provoking question and one that I have no trouble at all in answering (or at least trying to). I do think it merits a proper post in itself though, as opposed to trying to squeeze some thoughts in here, if that's ok?

    Thanks again for asking a question like that that. Keep the old grey matter whirring!

    All the best,


  3. Hi Rowan,

    I agree it's much easier to reply in a post, I look forward to reading it.

    I've also added a link to your blog from mine.