Monday, 18 July 2011

What's happening?

Paul at Winning Racing Tips sent an email the other day, seemingly half apologetic for not giving many selections at present. Actually, apologetic isn't the right word, because if someone apologises, then it signifies that they have done something wrong. Not forcing selections is not doing something wrong, and Paul obviously knows this.

What caught my attention within that email though was the comment that July, for whatever reason, had historically been a poor month for the service. Perhaps this poor period for WRT is simply a coincidence or perhaps there is some logical, underlying reason for it but whatever, it got me thinking a little. It occurred to me that if we listened and reacted to the various reasons I regularly hear for a particular time of year to be a tricky time for the gambler, then we would very rarely gamble at all...

January/February: bad weather causes the postponement of race meetings and some trainers find it difficult to keep their charges fit when the gallops are frozen and unusable, making it very difficult to predict how any horse will run.

March/April: football betting becomes more unpredictable as the teams with nothing to play for go through the motions. Of course, when said demotivated team wins 5-0 away from home, it's obvious that they've played with a new found freedom. Either way, we're screwed.

May: a difficult period for gambling on the horses as we see the transition from the jumps to the flat.

June/July: the volatile nature of the typical British summer means that the going at most racecourses fluctuates on a seemingly daily basis between being as hard as a road and as soft as a bog, and this in turn makes predicting the outcome of races incredibly difficult.

August/September: football betting is hit hard as the form of teams is difficult to gauge with so few games having been played as the season starts.

October: tricky with the horses now as we see the transition from the flat to the jumps.

December: well, it's Christmas isn't it!?! Bound to have an effect.

Throw in the fact that the way BetFair can be exploited by the unscrupulous to make money out of losing horses and that in turn means that the whole racing game is bent, plus the fact that all the bloody tipsters are continually losing the plot, and that we all know deep down, don't we, that football is corrupt in Jonny Foreigner-land...what hope do we have?

I think I'll give up this betting lark. Either that or just back the nags in August. What do you reckon?

Today's Betting

Only ProBandit in action today and how they dropped a point is typical of how things are going at present. Their tip was Galpin Junior in the last at Beverley, each way. I managed to get 7/1 this morning. Now even allowing for the fact that there would be a 15p rule 4 deduction as result of two non-runners, you would be optimistic of at least a place return as it was backed down on course to 5/2 favourite. It finished nowhere. That is not a bad tip. But it is another loser.

I'm not going to do the overall figures tonight as there is an On The Oche bet starting shortly, so I'll update properly tomorrow.


  1. Great post mate- looks like its football in November as well!


  2. Hey Rowan mate.
    Well july continues to dissapoint in more ways than just the weather eh.

    Its interesting that although im following different services to you, my results are following a similar pattern so perhaps their are times when its best to just stop. But, the stop and start points are of course vital and unless you are Psychic us mere mortals have to just grin and bear it.

    I have an enforced break next week for a couple of weeks sun so you can guarentee that all services will hit record profits no doubt!!!

    I remember a few years back i was keeping a close eye on a services ( Centaur Racing )performance without actually joining and they went all year in defecit untill mid november when suddenly every bet seemed to win for them and they ended up with a nice profit for the year so all is not lost......i hope.

    July has seen me hit a new low for the year and my bottom line is now around 1800 down with all costs deducted.

    Id be interested in your P/L figures to date(fees included) if you dont mind sharing.

  3. Hi Geoff,

    Looks like you've spotted an opportunity. We have options! (lol!).


  4. No probs, Alan - I'll sort that out tonight when I get home. Not going to be making for happy reading from the turn of the year, though :(.

    What I had planned to do anyway, is keep the running total for the year (as of 1st July) as well as the daily and month to date break downs, and deduct fees from the runnning total at the end of each month. It will be easier to follow the absolute bottom line by doing it that way. I just didn't think there was much point in doing that this month as the month to date and running total is going to be the same.

    Despite my flippant post last night, there are definitely times when for whatever reason, things do all go tits up. As you say though, mate, what can you do?

    Listen - do me a favour though, would you? Just let me know which day you're off on your jollies so I can double stakes. :)